Three Horizons
At the Regenerative Futures Fund, we want to support projects and people to work towards a collective vision for Edinburgh that is different to what we see now. We want people to think and plan for the long-term rather than being stuck in the here and now.
We know this is not easy as we are so stuck in the present, dealing with issues as they arise, rather than imagining, building and putting into practice new ways of working.
A model that we find helpful is the Three Horizons framework. It can be helpful to visualise conversations about the present, the future and places in between. It helps us to ask questions, placing them in time and relating them to what's happening or what might happen. Each horizon tells a story - our story - of how the world feels and looks like today, what we think will happen or what we want to happen, and what might help us to get there.
Horizon One (H1) describes those things that we see around us that we don't think are fit for purpose. We need change, right? But things can't stop overnight and, in fact, there are probably aspects that we would like to keep. So, H1 is seen reducing over time from being dominant to somewhere above zero.
Horizon three (H3) tells a story of the changes we want to see - more trees, cleaner air, kinder conversations, fairer wealth distribution. But something has to make these happen and they will start from small beginnings. So, we can begin by asking what we would like to see happening in the future - what will that look and feel like? - and place those hopes over at the top right, where H3 dominates and H1 has shrunk. At the beginning of the H3 story we can ask ourselves - what are the weak signals that this is happening already? Who and what is practicing an alternative future and how do we support this to grow?
Horizon Two (H2) is the connecting, messy space of trying out different things that can boost those weak signals. If all goes well, they launch H3 to success and help H1 to retire. If it doesn’t go to plan, H2 innovation can be 'captured' by H1, appropriated or swallowed up by the system we're keen to dismantle, and it feels as though nothing has changed. By telling the story as we go along we can check to see which future we’re heading towards.
We find it useful to draw out the horizons - or make them with materials that are handy - and work out where we are in time right now. Then we ask each of those questions, collect and map the answers in time and how 'dominant' they are at that time. It helps us to describe what we're aiming for and how.
Each Horizon has a part to play. Each story has to be told if we're going to set a direction for the future we want. By using this framework we can plan, dream, disagree, reset course and more, by moving, adjusting and re-imagining our map, our route to the future
Other Resources
Wales Future Generations Toolkit
Three horizons: A toolkit to help you think and plan for the long-term
An video introduction by Kate Raworth
Leaders' Quest introduction video